Nasdaq 100- Potentially Very Dangerous Pattern!

nasdaq 100 head and shoulders watching close april 30

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This chart looks at the Nasdaq 100 index over the past 10-years.

A potential “Head & Shoulders” (H&S) topping pattern could be in play, highlighted in red.

Even if this is NOT an H&S topping pattern, the following situation has me watching Tech very closely; the index broke 5-year rising support line (A) last fall and the rally over the past couple of months has it kissing the underside of lines (A) and (B) at (1).

The NDX “Kissed” the underside of dual resistance of late and has turned a little weak since. If the NDX would continue to be soft going forward, it could reflect a 5-year break of its bull trend.

FYI-This dual kiss of resistance, potentially could be taking place “right at the right shoulder!”

A top is NOT proven at this time. This pattern does present a dangerous place for the tech sector.

 

 

King Dollar breaking down, below monthly support, says Joe Friday

joefridayusdollarbreakingmonthlysupportapril29

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Starting in 2014, the US Dollar experienced one of its strongest 12-month rallies in its history. That strong rally pushed it up to the top of a trading channel and drove monthly momentum to the highest levels in the past 15-years.

Over the past 12-months, the US$ has pretty much just traded sideways.

Joe Friday Just The Facts; US Dollar could close out the month at “new monthly closing lows” when looking back over the past 15-months, as momentum remains at lofty levels and curling lower.

US Dollar strength has been hard on commodities the past few years. If US$ weakness continues, hard hit commodities could attract buyers.

 

Triple Top taking place in this broad based index?

triple top pic

Below takes a look at the Valu-Line index over the past couple of decades. Could a “Triple Top” be in play in the broad based index?

valu line geometric triple top resistance test april 28

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One year ago this week (4/24/15) the Valu Line peaked, as it was hitting the highs it reached in the late 1990’s and 2007.

Was this index influenced by the “Sell In May” theme one year ago this week?

Did a “Triple Top” take place a year ago? The jury is still out on this billion dollar question.

One thing that is for sure, over the past year, this index remains in a down trend, as it has created a series of lower highs and lower lows, inside of falling channel (A).

At this time the index is testing falling resistance at (1) and it is being presented an opportunity to break this down trend.

A key test of falling resistance is in play at (1) above. How this index handles falling resistance, should tell us a ton about where the S&P 500 heads over the next few weeks and months.

Since it is that time of year ago (Sell In May), this would NOT be a place that bulls would want to see weakness start creeping into the markets!