Rising wedge is suggesting a lower U.S. Dollar in the near future…Different this time around?

Posted by Chris Kimble on 01/12/2012 at 1:45 pm; This entry is filed under Dollar Update.

 

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Roughly two-thirds of the time a rising wedge leads to lower prices.  The U.S. Dollar on a weekly closing basis has been forming a "bearish rising wedge" and the top of the wedge happens to be a key high a few years ago.

Will the two-thirds odds come true or will it break the top of the wedge.  Not much wiggle room in this pattern, we should find out in short-order how this pattern unfolds!

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5 Comments

  1. Robert I January 12th, 2012 at 1:56 pm

    Chris,
    if the dollar as you suggest may be headed down then would you assume also that stock prices and commodities such as gold/silver would be headed up because of the lower dollar

  2. Ryan January 12th, 2012 at 1:58 pm

    Chris, any thoughts on SLV here? Break out?

  3. Ao January 12th, 2012 at 6:03 pm

    Shouldn’t the fact that CNBC is saying to buy stocks be a contrary indicator?

    http://www.cnbc.com/id/45945266

  4. Andrew January 13th, 2012 at 5:21 am

    I would argue that there appears to have been rising wedges in both 2008 and 2010 that broke %10 higher from $80 to $89 in short order

  5. Chris Kimble January 13th, 2012 at 12:13 pm

    Andrew…yes there was, you are correct.

    I look for these wedge against resistance as potential turning points. Their remains a 35% chance of a rising wedge not leading to a decline in price and this could well be one of those times. An upside break of the Dollar out of this wedge would be very good for the Dollar and reinforce the Cup & Handle pattern.

    Thanks for the quality comment and observation,
    Chris