This “Currency indicator” is now suggesting at least a 13% rally in the S&P 500….is that possible again?

The Australian $/U.S.$ ratio has a decent track record for future S&P 500  moves.  On 3/29 this currency ratio was suggesting at least a 7% decline in the S&P 500 should take place (see 7% decline posting) and the S&P 500 declined a little more than that from high to the recent lows.

The chart below is an update to this ratio, reflecting that each time the ratio hit a certain price level since 2010, the S&P 500 has rallied at least 13%.

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This ratio has been decent in on both rallies and declines, its now 4 for 4 on declines.  Now a big test to its track record is at hand right!

The chart below was shared with Premium Members of late, reflecting that Crude Oil traders could well have a good deal to do with an S&P 500 rally, as Crude Oil is on support and these two have a high degree of correlation over the past few years.

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Crude is on rising support and at it 38% retracement level.  When Crude oil was trading at $109, the Power of the Pattern reflected that Crude oil was at a price point that should see it decline and take stocks with it (see be careful what you wish for)

Currently the patterns are calling for a rally in Crude, which could well pull the 500 index higher along with it.

 Lets see if the worlds economic situation can derail this currency ratios track record and Crudes upside pattern suggestion-  If support line (1) in the ratio is taken out as well as the 500 support and Crude oil, this ratio's track record will have a big strike against it!

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