Commodities reaching a “Counter Trend Peak” and about to fall once again? Deflation trend going to continue?

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The CRB Commodity Index lost over half its value in the 2008-2009 decline and then proceed to rally up to its 61% retracement level in May of 2011.  The 61% Fib level stopped the CRB on a dime!  Despite Benna-Clause attempting to inflate the world, the CRB has declined over 20% in the past 14 months!

I shared the above chart with Premium Members a couple of days ago, reflecting that the CRB hit its 23% Fibonacci and falling channel support line at (2) about 5 weeks ago and has now rallied up to its 38% Fibonacci level and falling channel resistance at (3).

Does this pattern reflect a "counter-trend rally peak" in the Commodities complex, at falling channel and 38% Fib resistance?  It very well could.  A further decline in the CRB from here, would suggest the Global deflation theme remains in tack!

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One Comments

  1. Then again, couldn’t this be seen as a bull flag (a little too steep maybe), i.e. even though the prices should fall again in the channell, they should eventually break to the upside?