Commodities Message To The World Is…

 

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Commodity Bulls were easy to find in April of 2011, as 70% of investors felt like Commodities were the place to be. Since then Commodity ETF DBC is down 20%. Did it pay to follow the crowd or go against it in 2011?

Investors feel a little bit different about Commodities at this time, as bullish sentiment at (3) has declined to 30% bulls. 

Crude Oil (upper left chart) is testing a 5-year support line and the Thompson Reuters Commodity Index (upper right chart) is testing a 4-year support line at the same time.

It paid to go against the crowd in April of 2011, will it pay to go against the crowd now at (3)?

Interest rates have been falling this year, as bond traders have not been concerned about too much global inflation or growth, as the yield on the 10 & 30-year bond continue to fall this year. Are bonds telling us the truth about global inflation or lack of?

Joe Friday...From a global macro growth point of view, it would appear very important that commodities hold at these support lines!

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King Dollar Is Nearing 11-Year Resistance, Sentiment Getting Lofty!

 

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The U.S. Dollar has experienced a small rally over the past couple of months (up 3%), taking it back to falling resistance line (1) that has been in place for the past 11-years. 

This small rally has created a shift in bullish sentiment towards the U.S. Dollar. The lower inset chart reflects bulls were hard to find a couple of months ago and now its a little easier to find them.

Sentiment is nearing levels where the Dollar peaked over the past few years as it is nearing this key resistance line.

Can King Dollar break this 11-year resistance line, will it be different this time?

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Gold Miners…Bullish Falling Wedge Breakout Near?

 

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The GDXJ/GDX ratio may have created a bullish inverse head & shoulders pattern over the past year.

Of late the ratio could be forming a bullish falling wedge. Two thirds of the time this pattern leads to higher prices.

If the ratio would breakout, it would be a good sign for senior and junior miners. Keep a close eye on this index in the next few weeks because where this pattern heads from here should be important for big and small miners.

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